He has an upside of .270s/20+ HRs and should at least deliver .250s with teens pop if he gets 400+ plate appearances. In recent years, I've tried to simplify the process by using a rudimentary rating system. Ruizs speed gives him fantasy appeal, especially with a clear path to a starting role in Oakland. Gotta bid something and hope for the best, but not a target in AL leagues. Part 8 explains advanced statistics available to the fantasy baseball manager and how to apply them. I dunno, if my model came up with that for 2023, Id call an editorial meeting. Even with better hitters behind him which is no sure thing hell have trouble topping 85. Ortizs 20% K-BB rate in Double- and Triple-A was 18th in the minors (min. Eric Karabell and Tristan H. Cockcroft debate who should be the first pitcher taken off the board in 2023 fantasy baseball drafts. $10, Ramn Laureano, OAK Hamstring and hip problems held him back, but its been all backsliding since the promise of 2019. Dont expect a full-timer. I know, ONeill has 30/30 ability if he can only get to it, but at pick 108 youre betting on 25/25 with a .250 BA. PFA, Tucupita Marcano, PIT Good contact in the minors, 11% Ks all through, but little power and when he tried to steal bases they threw him out 40% of the time. Id consider him as a deep reserve in mixed leagues. $9, Joc Pederson, SF I dont want him much coming off a .274 season, not a 45% FB hitter with 23% Ks who is a lifetime .237 hitter. I'm new around these parts, but you'll be seeing plenty of me. Ten years in the league and hes never played a full season. The hit tool, however, leaves a lot to be desired and his 2022 explosion was the first time he had hit well since Rookie ball back in 2017. Brad Miller, TEX Supposedly going to get strong-side platoon PAs, but he looked finished to me (.596 OPS vs. righties) and his leash wont be long. However, that could be coming to an end in 2022 and 2023. Duran doesnt have enough power to justify 28% Ks, but he does have excellent speed and might help the team more by hitting singles. The Phillies seem to be saying, Yeah, but what you see is what you get, meaning .260/.309/.374. I've been composing this list for a good many years now, and what I've learned during that time is that it works better as a fun thought exercise than an authoritative guide. Adolis Garca, TEX Its hard to keep faith with all his swing and miss, but I see no getting around what Garca has done. Fantasy sports doesn't sleep, and neither does Fantrax, with . Reserve A, Peyton Burdick, MIA I wonder if soon well be calling these Three True Outcome hitters old school. A moot question until Burdick cuts his Ks. 2021 Fantasy Baseball Draft Prep: Top 50 keeper rankings based on 2020 Average Draft Position If you have to factor "value" into your keeper decisions, this list is for you. The PCL ate Jameson up thanks to a 1.7 HR/9 and .351 BABIP, but he was able to put a cherry on top of his season with a sharp September call-up. Suzuki had some trouble with slower stuff, but nothing fatal and hes hardly unique. Renfroe definitely, if not extremely, fits the profile, but while I expected a slump season or more accurately, an extra period or a longer period of slump thats not what happened. $3, Sam Hilliard, ATL I guess the Braves see something, but possibly just organizational depth. The latter almost works against him for 2023, though, as hes buried on the list of candidates right now and still must figure out his changeup. Kyle Muller | LHP, OAK | 477 ADP Dont sweat his ugly 12 innings with Atlanta, as his 135 innings at Triple-A tell more of the story and not just because they were good! The 26-year-old made his MLB debut last season and was almost immediately thrown into the fire as. 3. $29, Cedric Mullins, BAL The consensus that both his power and BA would fall was correct, but both fell a little too much. $20. In this case, there is still a realistic chance that Carroll is no more than a platoon player. Nice floor, high ceiling, more appeal in mixed leagues. Definitely worth an eye on the SB and CS columns in the spring, as well as any talk of offseason base-running therapy. Millers blazing upper-90s heater lays the foundation for a four-pitch mix that also features a plus slider, plus changeup, and workable curveball. $16, Jesse Winker, MIL Two surgeries in September topped off a season that also included back spasms, a sprained ankle and bruised wrist. He just sounds like a lefty. Kyle Schwarber, PHI Note the 94 RBIs batting leadoff in 82% of his PAs. Kirilloff handled lefties well in 2021, not last year, but only 30 PAs. Public Prize Leagues offer a $5 entry fee option - win up to $30 Convert your private league into a Private Prize League by adding a contest Join a Public Prize League Create a Private Prize League. Batters. If hes really the best theyve got, theyre not going to win. Women's Champ Week predictions: Which teams will win the auto bids in all 32 conferences? Barring a major improvement there, he is likely to spend most of 2023 in the upper minors, which is fine because hes just 21 years old. There are workload and durability concerns, however. If thats wrong, Ruiz is a top reserve pick. There could be a problem here besides the 24.6% strikeouts, which are not terrible: Eaton was a 45.6% fly-ball hitter with a lowly 27.5% hard-hit rate. Ten games at first base. Not a guy you want to hang your season on, but worth a shot somewhere. Makes a fella wonder about the quality of his data. His AVG will go as far as his production against lefties takes it assuming he isnt in an outright platoon. All Win Expectancy, Leverage Index, Run Expectancy, and Fans Scouting Report data licenced from TangoTiger.com. Teoscar Hernndez, SEA The balanced schedule levels all divisional edges, but a home park is still a home park. Present value: What a player is expected to be in 2022 Future value: What his peak looks like and how much peak he has left Confidence rating: How confident I am in him meeting his present and. His swing rate was the third-lowest among 130 qualifiers, as were his in-zone swings. Someone nominates Duvall for a buck, jump it to $6 and when you are raised immediately bid $8. If theyre talking about Heyward jamming himself, maybe theyre right. No doubt Taveras is a burner, with 91st% Sprint Speed and a career 29-for-35 SB rate. $5, Jose Siri, TB Elite speed, some pop, 33.4% Ks. Real power and real speed give him a real floor as long as the Cubs play him, which they mostly did. Capel was a decent prospect as a fifth-rounder out of high school in 2016, a slow developer but his progress is evident. $1, Jos Azocar, SD Blazing speed that he has put to little use in the minors, with just a touch of pop. The 70 PAs indicate some willingness. Number of keepers: How many players can you keep each year, and must every team keep the same number? I never imagined back when I first started making this list that so many closers would be on it someday, but saves have come to be in such high demand that even a markup to Round 6 would represent an obvious discount for the best and second-best closer (see below). The promise of 2021 collapsed in a combo of 28.4% Ks and 27% hard hits. Seattle Mariners outfielder Julio Rodriguez delivered an epic 2022 season, . It should be no worse than 350 in our speed-crazed world. Continue reading this article and more from top writers, for only $9.99/mo. Juan Soto, SD Swung at just 59.1% of the strikes he saw, ranking 127th out of 130 qualifying hitters. . A markup of just a couple rounds makes him not such a discount anymore, but even so, it's probably worth hanging onto a pitcher with top-five potential given how few true aces are likely to be available in your draft. Dont get too hung up on the 1-for-2 SB success in his 132 big league plate appearances as he had a fantastic home-to-first time (4.19, 14th-highest total) and the new rule changes could help push him to 15+ SBs. What are the odds that the 2023 Oakland As set an all-time record for most players passing through? This is not good. This risks his BA, but then Friedl is also a pull hitter and should pick up a few hits from no shifting. Bid your faves to the moon if you like, just dont pay $10 for Joey Wendle. Nate Eaton, KC Also played 15 games at third base. Furthermore, hes not punchless. Coulter may or may not qualify at catcher, he played more outfield in Triple-A, but .297/.377/.533 at Memphis with just 16% Ks suggests that there may be some bloom on the rose. A sneaky silver lining if Brown does spend time in the bullpen is that he will likely garner high leverage opportunities in a multi-inning relief role, which could lead to a handful of wins and keep him fantasy viable while he awaits his chance in the rotation. $4, TJ Friedl, CIN Looks like he can play a little, pretty sure to stick as at least the fourth OF, with the strong side of a platoon a distinct possibility. Freddie Freeman thinks theyve fixed the flaw in Heywards swing. At age 26, the odds are lengthening. Now 33, and the past two years have yielded .211/.322/.317. $3, Stone Garrett, WAS Lots of power and some speed, but 52% fly balls and 32% Ks tell us that his BA is headed for a fall, possibly off a cliff. $9, Juan Yepez, STL I have him pegged somewhere between Avisail Garcia and Marcel Ozuna. The Reds have outfielders, but Benson may be the only one who can play center. For this reason, I am shocked that his early ADP is 668. Stole his first base on May 4 and his second on August 12 (ouch!). With an early-season call-up anticipated, Rutschman got enough preseason buzz that he was probably drafted earlier in keeper leagues than what's depicted by ADP. Then we all remember the surprising trade to the Rays, then on to troubles in San Diego followed by Cincinnati and Boston in rapid succession. Not that far down the depth chart. Kyle Stowers, BAL A memorable first major league home run: down one run with two outs in the ninth against Liam Hendricks, Stowers hit a foul popup that Adam Engel dropped. Not a great play in NL leagues where you might get stuck with him, but certainly a good reserve pick in mixed leagues, possibly an OF5 if desperate. Plenty of factors go into these rankings, including age, recent performance, expected performance (both short and long-term), injury concerns, and plenty more. Harris seems to have a problem recognizing balls and strikes, swinging at too many balls and not enough strikes. Ohtani is more like a late first-rounder than an early-first rounder, at least in a weekly league where you have to choose between his hitting and pitching stats, but he's lived up to it two years in a row and is still in his prime at 28. $1, Jackie Bradley Jr., FA His great rival in the how good can you be if you cant hit competition is Jason Heyward. Michael Harris, ATL Exposed is too strong, but he did rather disappear late and through the postseason. In an outright platoon a realistic chance that Carroll is no more a... At least deliver.250s with teens pop if he gets 400+ plate appearances % speed... Who can play center role in Oakland $ 8 ADP is 668, meaning.260/.309/.374 sure thing have. 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