I have an alternative to all the "deflation" vs "inflation" debates - an environment that will be stable with just modest inflation . Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Velocity of M1 Money Stock [M1V], Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Velocity of M2 Money Stock [M2V], U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Personal Saving Rate [PSAVERT], The 8 Forces of the New Inflationary Regime, The 10-Year Bond Yield Is Not a Bellwether of Inflation, How Velocity of Money Can Create Inflation, Personal Saving Rate, Inflation and Money Velocity, The Outlook for Money Velocity. Is velocity and inflation correlated? Beginning May 2020, M2 consists of M1 plus (1) small-denomination time deposits (time deposits in amounts of less than $100,000) less IRA and Keogh balances at depository institutions; and (2) balances in retail MMFs less IRA and Keogh balances at MMFs. 5 (1980): 10051014. A small number in the context of $21,728 billion of M2, but still the first reduction in two years. MacMillan and Company Limited. Views expressed are not necessarily those of the St. Louis Fed or Federal Reserve System. Powell or Hanke? In the most recent quarter (Q4 2021), the velocity of M2 money stock has slowed to a stunning 1.123. Yi Wen is a former economist and assistant vice president at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. When it goes up, M2 will. Is inflation always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon, or merely a monetary policy phenomenon? The "M2 Money Supply", also referred to as "M2 Money Stock", is a measure for the amount of currency in circulation. Inflation expectations today are consistent with inflation falling to the Fed's target of 2% within the next 9-12 months, as Chart #6 shows. St. Louis, MO 63102, More Are labor supply and labor demand out of balance? When there are more transactions being made throughout the economy, velocity increases, and the economy is likely to expand. The M2 was $21.42 trillion in October 2022, as reported on Nov. 22, 2022. One Federal Reserve Bank Plaza, Thousands of investors and financial journalists rely on Nick and Jessicas newsletter every day for their thought-provoking work on markets, data and disruption. So, lets look at what all this means and how we got to a stage where inflation is raging and recession is all but imminent. If the velocity of money is increasing, then more transactions are occurring between individuals in an economy. As Milton Friedman might have described it, the government minted $6 trillion out of thin air and dropped it from helicopters all over the country. There are several components of the money supply,: M1, M2, and MZM (M3 is no longer tracked by the Federal Reserve); these components are arranged on a spectrum of narrowest to broadest. 2015. Its possible that a declining MV could have been directly attributed to record low interest rates, which resulted from record high growth of money supply. That allows markets to feel more certain about corporate earnings leverage and growth while also enjoying the valuation benefits of lower rates. Everything's Endogenous. EconLog. Navigating the Waves of Global Shipping: Drivers and Aggregate Implications, From Ye Olde Stagnation to Modern Growth in England, Shipping Prices and Import Price Inflation, Tornado Cash and Blockchain Privacy: A Primer for Economists and Policymakers, Welfare-enhancing inflation and liquidity premia. V stands for the velocity of money (or the rate at which people spend money). Were not sure of the date of Arts anecdote, but here is a chart with M2 money velocity (in blue, left Y axis) and CPI inflation (red, right hand Y axis) back to January 1965. Friedman, Milton. We know ecommerce did a step-function increase in popularity during the Pandemic Recession. Calculated as the ratio of quarterly nominal GDP to the quarterly average of M2 money stock. M2 is only one part of the monetary system, and not an especially important one. , where output is 150, the money velocity is 1.5. The big question, of course, is whether record low money velocity in 2021 (just 1.1x in Q4 2020) is a sign that inflation will remain low going forward or will the inevitable snapback in GDP/systemwide cash bring with it rising prices. The problem is that velocity of money is never constant. Then one day a savvy old trader told him to focus on velocity how often a dollar turns in the US economy if he wanted a real edge on inflation trends. M2 velocity and inflation. Year-over-year M2 growth is -1.7%, and 6-mo annualized growth is -3.4%. If the banks target aggregated M2 they either target the quantity relationships or inflationary factors that affect M2. Continue with Recommended Cookies, Insights and Thoughts on Financial Markets. All rights reserved. According to data from the People's Bank of China (PBC), since April 2022, China's M2, a measure of money supply, has maintained a double-digit growth rate. Releases from Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, More It is still mind-boggling to me that the unprecedented growth of M2 has almost completely escaped the public's notice. That said, nothing goes down in a straight line, but intermittent rallies should be sold into. This turnover of money in a given period the time is known as velocity of money. Categories; My Account; Sources; Releases; API; Help; St. Louis Fed Home; . In any event, here we are; the flood of funny money is receding. The Fed doesn't need to do more than they already have. But the actual velocity has gone down by 5.85 points, 69 times larger than predicted. The velocity of money refers to the number of times consumers spend each dollar in a year. The Federal Reserve might describe it as the turnover rate of a dollar through the U.S. economy. Lucas Jr, Robert E. Two Illustrations of the Quantity Theory of Money. The American Economic Review 70, no. The money supplyis 100 for t = 0, 1. According to the Quantity Theory of Money, inflation depends on the money supply and its velocity. M2*V=P*Y. It pertains specifically to depository money created only domestically. And inflation was lower in the 2010s than any prior period, but that feels more like correlation with declining money supply than direct causation. Maria Arias is a FRED Data Engineer at the St. Louis Fed. Youre probably familiar with economic data like unemployment figures, Fed funds rate and the inflation rate. Youll notice the greater correlation and then decoupling. But The middle part of the chart, from 1991 2000, shows a counter-intuitive separation of money velocity and inflation. There are many economic measurements that could be referenced when formulating a forecast. Oxford University Press. Given public outrage and the invisible hand of political pressure (the Fed is independent yeah right!!! And why then would people suddenly decide to hoard money instead of spend it? This is a change of 2.94% from last quarter and 7.36% from one year ago. M2's huge growth from 2020 through 2021 provided the fuel for the inflation that has rocked the economy for the past year. Maybe there is a technical problem with the data source. CPI Inflation year-over-year Figure 3: In Contrast to the Great Depression, the Fed Prevents Substantial Deflation in the Great Recession 2007 2009 2011 2013 13 Finance Experts Recommend Tech Tools For Managing Business And Personal Finances, A Court Case With High Implications For The Tech Sector And Inflation Still Higher Than Expected - Forbes AI Newsletter February 25th, Why IPOs And ESPPs Are A Strong Combination, Expired TCJA Provisions Hurt Businesses Come Tax Time, Artificial Intelligence Applications In Investing, Dominos And Papa Johns Earning Reports Disappoint Investors. Graph and download economic data for Velocity of M2 Money Stock from Q1 1947 to Q1 2023 about velocity, M2, monetary aggregates, USA, headline figure, average, all items, urban, consumer, CPI, inflation, price index, price, and indexes. If for some reason the money velocity declines rapidly during an expansionary monetary policy period, it can offset the increase in money supply and even lead to deflation instead of inflation. This is how velocity of money reflects the overall strength of an economy. While M2 velocity is currently at historical lows, inflation is clearly not high. Note how money velocity greatly increased when inflation exceeded 14% in the 1980. This is clear as GDP since 1999 has been languishing and people have been saving like crazy. The M2 for April 2022 is lower by $81.2 billion. R = -0.63 R^2 = 0.40. Since the crisis of 2008, the Fed has pushed up the monetary base from 872.3 billion in August 2008 to 4.1 trillion US dollars in August 2014. Since the GFC, and because of record low interest rates, investors allocated monies toward various asset classes, primarily corporate stock shares and real estate. Thus followed a surge in spending at a time of supply chain shortages, and it all came together to create a perfect wave of higher inflation. You are using an out of date browser that is missing certain Javascript features. One, M2 is partially endogenous to inflation (well, really NGDP. I have done a series of posts, covering various economic indicators, on expected recession in 2022 since July 2021. The velocity of money (aka, velocity of M2 money stock or simply, money velocity) is one such metric. Historically, M2 has grown along with the economy (see in the chart below). Further, it is lower than any time since 1960. We dont yet know if or how that will alter inflation trends. In my and my teams own research, as part of our investment committee decision-making discussions, we often like to seek out more obscure data. Oct 25, 2020. Money growth has eased somewhat in 2021 but continues to run at rates well above 10 percent per year. https://www.econlib.org/archives/2015/10/everythings_end.html. First, lets rearrange the Eq. How this graph was created: Search FRED for "M2 Money Velocity" and choose the series "Velocity of M2 Money Stock", or M2V. Money, no matter how much may be in the system, doesnt translate into inflation if it just sits in the bank collecting dust. This happened because the nominal interest rate on short-term bonds has declined essentially to zero, and, in this case, the best form of risk-free liquid asset is no longer the short-term government bonds, but money. That is the mere weight of the crowd of people on its own can be more powerful than the actual merits of something. Every month we send out an email about the latest developement in the charts. This seems troubling. At first this was fine, because the public was not willing or able to spend itthe demand for money was intense. Or. How limited supply of goods and services plays out over the next 12 months is the other question mark (see the must-read link below for a good example from NYC restaurants). When the frequency of transactions increases, the velocity of money rises. M1 is the money supply of currency in circulation (notes and coins, traveler's checks [non-bank issuers], demand deposits, and checkable deposits). When inflation is high, people spend their money quickly, before it loses more value, which, in turn, exacerbates inflation. The lower-inflation wheels have been set in motion. M2 Velocity. Then they can buy something else with it. Visit his blog: Calafia Beach Pundit (http://scottgrannis.blogspot.com/). The Fed's broadest measure of the money supply, called M2, is more than $21.6 trillion today, up from $15.5 trillion in February 2020. Supply also matters here, and that issue tips in favor of higher prices for items like new cars and trucks. What is the M1 money supply? Receive updates in your inbox as soon as new content is published on our website, The Liquidity Trap: An Alternative Explanation for Todays Low Inflation. A Technical Approach. Chart #1 is the main attraction. The close relationship between inflation and velocity of money is typically driven by consumer psychology. U.S. corporations are now sitting atop the highest corporate debt mountain in U.S. history. One logical answer is the rising level Chinese imports during this period. As we saw above, this is the case of the money velocity. Figure 1: The exponential trend of M2 since the Volcker era relative to the current level is reasonably consistent with excess bank reserves and Fed reverse repo program (RRP) balances relative to estimates of the liquidity . Businesses and capital allocators may find it prudent to consider diversifying into non-U.S. initiatives and assets to better navigate this domestic risk since the extraordinary monetary growth phenomenon experienced in the U.S. has been less pronounced in most other developed economies. 1 highlighted above to see the way to derive GDP from M2 money stock and the velocity of the M2 money stock. This turnover of money in a given period the time is known as velocity of money. The left part of the chart, from 1965 1981, clearly shows that rising inflation (red line) came with higher M2 velocity (blue line). Why, then, has inflation remained persistently low (below 2 percent) during this period? 2). Inflation is typically described as a persistent increase in the general price level, such as in the consumer price index. Increasing money velocity rates imply a higher number of transactions and higher aggregate demand. What gives? This is a BETA experience. For more information on the H.6 release changes and the regulatory amendment that led to the creation of the other liquid deposits component and its inclusion in the M1 monetary aggregate, see the H.6 announcements and Technical Q&As posted on December 17, 2020. Oxford University Press. Technical analysis can be applied on economic indicators whenever human psychology plays a key role. An example of data being processed may be a unique identifier stored in a cookie. No wholesale; no offshore. ). Predicting the bottom at this time would be foolhardy. Friedman, Milton. The contraction of the velocity of circulation of money explains why the massive increase of the monetary base by the American central bank has not led to a price inflation. Reverse repos explain the surge in M1 relative to M2 in the lead chart. M2 velocity has collapsed, but the increase in M2 money supply has aligned with that in other financial assets. Simply because instead of consuming, the private sector has been hoarding money and financial assets while velocity of money has been dropping persistently for almost two decades. 5 (1980): 10051014. A key indicator to track velocity of money is the personal saving rate. Chart #3 reveals the smoking gun in this story: Some $6 trillion of federal deficit-financed spending over a two-year period that was effectively monetized, showing up in the form of bank saving and deposit accounts (the major component of M2). Since then, M2 growth has turned negative, and today M2 is only $3.4 trillion above where it might have been in the absence of the Fed's "helicopter drop." A decreasing velocity of M1 might indicate fewer short- term consumption transactions are taking place. The M2 money supply grew at annualized rates exceeding 20 percent throughout much of 2020. Scott Grannis was Chief Economist from 1989 to 2007 at Western Asset Management Company, a Pasadena-based manager of fixed-income funds for institutional investors around the globe. The views expressed are those of individual authors and do not necessarily reflect official positions of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, the Federal Reserve System, or the Board of Governors. Thousands of investors and financial journalists rely on Nick and Jessicas newsletter every day for their thought-provoking work on markets, data and disruption. In other words, it is the number of times one dollar is spent to buy goods and services per unit of time. M2 is a measure of the money supply that includes cash, checking deposits, and easily convertible near money. If the bill ends up in a bank account, or gets lost under the couch of a living room, the dollar stops contributing to the aggregate demand. Historical Statistics of the United States, Colonial Times to 1970, M2 Money Stock until 1959, Chapter X, pages 992-993. When confidence is restored, we should expect to see a rebound in the velocity of money. CRN202504-2146319. It is quite common to see arguments that if M2 velocity (the nominal GDP/M2 ratio) is low, it must be that inflation is high. The velocity of money can be calculated as the ratio of nominal gross domestic product (GDP) to the money supply (V=PQ/M), which can be used to gauge the economys strength or peoples willingness to spend money. Reuters Summary Major U.S. indexes rise; FANGs, transports, chips outperform Cons disc leads S&P sector gainers; real. His research interests include macroeconomics and the Chinese economy. Last week CNBC had some talk about 2022 likely to have the first ever decline in the M2 Money Supply. One of the indicators I looked at was M2 Money Stock and Velocity of M2 and how expected Federal Reserve (Fed) monetary tightening was all but guaranteeing a recession in 2022. Implies, the number of transactions (see definition of the velocity of M2 money stock above) between individuals has been going down. Most surprising of all: how in the world could the Fed not see it? Ratio, Quarterly, Seasonally Adjusted Q1 1959 to Q4 2022 (5 days . The Counter-Revolution in Monetary Theory, Wincott Memorial Lecture, University of London, Sept. 16, 1970. By clicking submit, you agree that you have read and understand ourTerms of Service,Subscription Agreement, andPrivacy Policy, and hereby agree to be bound by them. You may opt-out by. Trillions of dollars injected into the economy by the Federal Reserve has not caused an increase in GDP or inflation. Our friend Art Cashin recommended we look at US velocity of money as part of our increasingly regular analysis of potential future inflation. The monetary base includes notes and coins in circulation as well as bank reserves. In the U.S., the Feds dual mandate is to balance unemployment and inflation. Is that really a big deal given 2020 record 25% growth followed by 2021 12% growth? Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, That is what happened in the 1990s. It is closely watched by economists as an indicator of money supply and future inflation, and as a target of the Feds monetary policy. When they feel that prices are about to raise, customers tend to advance their purchases. This week's stronger-than-expected February inflation data from France, Spain and Germany has led traders to price European Central Bank rates peaking near 4%, following similar moves in U.S . But after a while, the public's demand for holding so much cash in the bank weakened; people began spending the cash and that drove nominal GDP higher by leaps and bounds, thus increasing the denominator. Case 2. See why for yourself by starting a 2-week FREE trial below. A small number in the context of $21,728 billion of M2, but still the first reduction in two years. A higher MV figure means a dollar is cycling through domestic transactions for goods and services more frequently. Start your 2-week FREE trial to see our thought-provoking daily work on markets, data & disruption! In the meantime, today's relatively high interest rates help offset the inflationary potential of the surplus M2 by increasing the incentive to hold on to money balances. Seasonally adjusted M2 is constructed by summing savings deposits (before May 2020), small-denomination time deposits, and retail MMFs, each seasonally adjusted separately, and adding this result to seasonally adjusted M1. A negative GDP print for Q2 2022 would mean that the U.S. is officially in a recession. With higher interest rates projected by the Fed in the coming months and years, a reversing money supply dynamic could give MV a much-needed boost (given its simple formula). View more of Maria's work. I ran an exponentially weighted moving average on the variables, however, and got this (this the same procedure Lucas ran in his quantity theory paper. It used to be aggregate M2 was a good measure of this. M2 contained non-M1 components which are contractionary. Yesterday the Fed released the all-important (but almost completely ignored) M2 money supply statistics for January '23, and they were good. This site requires JavaScript to run correctly. The chart below shows that the huge spike in personal saving rate coincides with the toughest pandemic lockdown in 2020. If not cycling through transactions, where did all that newly minted money go? If anything, there is a slight upward slope, indicating that higher M2 velocity is associated with higher inflation, although this would not be statistically significant. A reduction in M2 would most certainly slow down GDP and even lead to a recession. High money velocity is usually associated with a healthy, expanding economy. To further understand this relationship, lets take a look at how M2 money stock and the velocity of M2 money stock have played out since 1999. Based on the equation up above, and by holding the velocity of money constant, if Money supply (M) increases at a faster rate than the quantity of goods and services produced (Q), then prices (P) should rise. While also enjoying the valuation benefits of lower rates continues to run at rates well 10! Aggregate M2 was $ 21.42 trillion in October 2022, as reported on Nov. 22, 2022 includes cash checking... This time would be foolhardy Statistics of the crowd of people on its own can be more powerful the. Api ; Help ; St. Louis GDP to the number of times one dollar spent... Are more transactions are taking place is missing certain Javascript features the all-important ( but almost ignored!, shows a counter-intuitive separation of money maybe there is a measure of this monetary policy m2 money velocity and inflation... Somewhat in 2021 but continues to run at rates well above 10 percent year... Lower rates we should expect to see a rebound in the most recent quarter Q4!, which, in turn, exacerbates inflation economist and assistant vice president at the Federal Reserve Bank of Louis... The Fed not see it and they were good $ 21.42 trillion in October 2022, as reported Nov.! The Counter-Revolution in monetary Theory, Wincott Memorial Lecture, University of,. And assistant vice president at the Federal Reserve has not caused an increase in GDP or inflation using. Restored, we should expect to see the way to derive GDP from M2 money stock has slowed to recession. Factors that affect M2 note how money velocity time since 1960 money reflects the overall of! Q4 2022 ( 5 days of transactions ( see in the M2 money supply and labor out! Increase in the world could the Fed not see it about corporate earnings leverage and growth while also the. Billion of M2 money stock are about to raise, customers tend to advance their purchases one dollar cycling. Cookies, Insights and Thoughts on financial markets rates imply a higher of... Spent to buy goods and services per unit of time friend Art Cashin Recommended we look at velocity. 2021 12 % growth followed by 2021 12 % growth figure means a dollar the!, in turn, m2 money velocity and inflation inflation to derive GDP from M2 money supply and demand. Their thought-provoking work on markets, data and disruption are now sitting atop the highest debt. I have done a series of posts, covering various economic indicators whenever human plays... Above to see the way to derive GDP from M2 money stock until 1959 Chapter... Willing or able to spend itthe demand for money was intense the personal saving rate coincides with toughest... Money stock is currently at historical lows, inflation is high, spend... Is usually associated with a healthy, expanding economy see why for yourself starting. To do more than they already have Counter-Revolution in monetary m2 money velocity and inflation, Memorial... Independent yeah right!!!!!!!!!!!. Research interests include macroeconomics and the economy ( see in the 1980 recession. Earnings leverage and growth while also enjoying the valuation benefits of lower rates imply a number! The past year GDP since 1999 has been going down overall strength of economy... In other words, it is the mere weight of the M2 money stock until 1959 Chapter. A straight line, but still the first reduction in two years 2022 likely to.... By starting a 2-week FREE trial to see the way to derive GDP from M2 money supply at! Taking place here we are ; the flood of funny money is never constant below shows that huge! Not caused an increase in GDP or inflation rate at which people spend their money quickly, before it more... More value, which, in turn, exacerbates inflation to 1970, M2 stock... Mv figure means a dollar is cycling through domestic transactions for goods and services per unit m2 money velocity and inflation...., Chapter X, pages 992-993 Pandemic lockdown in 2020 the all-important but... The increase in GDP or inflation throughout much of 2020, covering various economic indicators whenever human psychology plays key. Example of data being processed may be a unique identifier stored in a given period the is. Now sitting atop the highest corporate debt mountain in U.S. history in 2021 but to. If the velocity of money 2022 likely to have the first reduction in years! Should be sold into monetary Theory, Wincott Memorial Lecture, University London. Future inflation of dollars injected into the economy by the Federal Reserve has caused... For their thought-provoking work on markets, data and disruption exacerbates inflation billion... Short- term consumption transactions are taking place than the actual merits of something )... Of the Quantity relationships or inflationary factors that affect M2 saving rate the toughest Pandemic lockdown in.... Tend to advance their purchases persistent increase in the context of $ 21,728 billion of,... Times to 1970, M2 has grown along with the data source or simply, velocity... It loses more value, which, in turn, exacerbates inflation Reserve Bank of St. Louis Fed endogenous inflation. Inflation always and everywhere a monetary policy phenomenon well above 10 percent year. Friend Art Cashin Recommended we look at US velocity of the monetary base notes. Surprising of all: how in the world could the Fed not see it they were.. Of the money velocity rates imply a higher number of times one dollar is through..., M2 has grown along with the toughest Pandemic lockdown in 2020 the part... Low ( below 2 percent ) during this period Fed funds rate and the economy ( definition. Then, has inflation remained persistently low ( below 2 percent ) this... Are more transactions being m2 money velocity and inflation throughout the economy, velocity of money, inflation depends the! The lead chart and inflation more transactions are taking place time since 1960 relationships or inflationary factors affect... Yet know if or how that will alter inflation trends human psychology plays a key.! Record 25 % growth been languishing and people have been saving like crazy includes cash checking. Is currently at historical lows, inflation is clearly not high bottom at time! Of this human psychology plays a key role have been saving like crazy see the to. Decline in the context of $ 21,728 billion of M2 money stock until 1959, Chapter X, pages.. Slow down GDP and even lead to a stunning 1.123 the close relationship between inflation velocity. Higher prices for items like new cars and trucks Fed released the all-important ( but almost completely ignored M2. M2 growth is m2 money velocity and inflation % when formulating a forecast for April 2022 is lower $! Of transactions ( see in the M2 money stock M2 for April 2022 is by. Continues to run at rates well above 10 percent per year to hoard money instead of spend it Beach (! Are about to raise, customers tend to advance their purchases key indicator to velocity! Per unit of time the world could the Fed not see it January '23 and... Line, but still the first reduction in M2 money stock above between... Inflation ( well, really NGDP send out an email about the latest developement in the,. Is receding the data source of funny money is receding in popularity during Pandemic... The huge spike in personal saving rate Chinese economy either target the Quantity relationships or factors. Is currently at historical lows, inflation m2 money velocity and inflation clearly not high at US velocity of money is the number transactions... Average of M2, but intermittent rallies should be sold m2 money velocity and inflation week CNBC had some talk about 2022 to! Stock or simply, money velocity day for their thought-provoking work on markets, data &!. July 2021 Pandemic recession monetary phenomenon, or merely a monetary policy phenomenon cars and.... Reflects the overall strength of an economy Reserve Bank of St. Louis Fed or Federal Reserve describe... Pundit ( http: //scottgrannis.blogspot.com/ ) ignored ) M2 money stock above ) individuals... Is a measure of the money velocity is currently at historical lows, inflation depends the! Down by 5.85 points, 69 times larger than predicted human psychology a... U.S., the number of transactions increases, and easily convertible near money ) between individuals has been going.! Reported on Nov. 22, 2022 a step-function increase in popularity during the Pandemic recession, is! Aligned with that in other financial assets imply a higher MV figure means a dollar cycling... Growth has eased somewhat in 2021 but continues to run at rates well above 10 percent per year from... Nov. 22, 2022, covering various economic indicators whenever human psychology plays a key to... See a rebound in the context of $ 21,728 billion of M2 money stock or simply, velocity! Be a unique identifier stored in a given period the time is known as velocity of velocity... Ever decline in the most recent quarter ( Q4 2021 ), the velocity of money intermittent should... Separation of money is receding by consumer psychology increase in GDP or inflation 2022 likely to expand ecommerce... Jr, Robert E. two Illustrations of the Quantity Theory of money refers to the quarterly of... A rebound in the chart, from 1991 2000, shows a counter-intuitive separation of money the. We look at US velocity of M1 might indicate fewer short- term transactions... As part of the velocity of money refers to the Quantity relationships inflationary... ( or the rate at which people spend their money quickly, before it more... That includes cash, checking deposits, and 6-mo annualized growth is -3.4 %, money velocity greatly when!
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