Breckinridge believes the data provided by unaffiliated third parties to be reliable but investors should conduct their own independent verification prior to use. [10] See Treasurys guidance and the Interim Final Rule here: https://home.treasury.gov/policy-issues/coronavirus/assistance-for-state-local-and-tribal-governments/state-and-local-fiscal-recovery-funds. The U.S. Corporate Index was launched on January 1, 1973. Here: the Robert F. Kennedy . For example, let's say you're in the 35% tax bracket, comparing an 8% corporate bond to a 5.25% muni bond. Analysts will review a variety of sources such as corporate sustainability reports, data subscriptions, and research reports to obtain available metrics for internally developed ESG frameworks. CEO of Family Wealth and Pension Management, We're seeing very strong demand for municipal bonds in December, says Hilltop's Kozlik, Retirees need to keep this much cash, advisors say, Don't count on that tax refund yet. With volatility revisiting financial markets this year, investors may want to reevaluate their allocations to tax-exempt municipals as a possible source of diversification in a rising-rate environment. However, throughout the year, there may be periods during which modestly weaker demand overlaps with increased supply. [53] Conclusion based on Breckinridge analysis of Bureau of Economic Analysis and Census data. The federal infrastructure bills $47 billion for climate resiliency projects will likely spur more local borrowing for such projects in the coming year and beyond. PIMCO is a trademark of Allianz Asset Management of America L.P. in the United States and throughout the world. August 2022 Tax Loss Harvesting and Muni Bonds Municipal bond yields have more than doubled this year, and valuations look attractive. [14] Senator Manchin pulled his support from the deal in late December citing deficit concerns. Past performance is not a guarantee of future result. Nonetheless, the likelihood that demand weakens is higher in 2022 than it was in 2021. In these situations, we favor opportunistic buying on the likelihood that ratios or spreads widen. Probably not. Fund shares are not individually redeemable and will be issued and redeemed at their NAV only through certain authorized broker-dealers in large, specified blocks of shares called "creation units" and otherwise can be bought and sold only through exchange trading. Available at: https://www.governing.com/finance/public-pensions-new-inflation-dilemma.html. The tables and charts below provide yield rates for AAA, AA, and A rated municipal bonds in 10, 20 and 30 year maturity ranges. The funds may be subject to following risks as a result of investing in Exchange Traded Products including municipal securities, performance of underlying funds investments, leverage, credit, high yield securities, tax, interest rate, call, state concentration and sector concentration risks. 2023 CNBC LLC. [8] Monthly Collections Remitted to the State Comptroller (IL), available at: https://www2.illinois.gov/rev/research/taxstats/CollectionsComptroller/Pages/default.aspx; New Jersey Office of Revenue and Economic Analysis, monthly revenue reports. The "Net Asset Value" (NAV) of a VanEck exchange-traded fund (ETF) is determined at the close of each business day, and represents the dollar value of one share of the fund; it is calculated by taking the total assets of the fund, subtracting total liabilities, and dividing by the total number of shares outstanding. Capital gains, if any, are subject to capital gains tax. TEY represents the yield a taxable bond investment would have to earn in order to match, after deducting federal income taxes, the yield available on a tax-exempt municipal bond investment. Updated on October 24, 2022 Reviewed by JeFreda R. Brown Fact checked by Julian Binder In This Article How Municipal Bonds Performed Over 15 Years Municipal Bond Interest-Rate Risk Municipal Bond Credit Risk The Bottom Line Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs) Photo: Monty Rakusen/Cultura/Getty Images [i] The investment grade market data is from the Bloomberg Municipal Bond Index. [34] Zamarro, Camp, Fuchsman, and McGee, How the pandemic has changed teachers commitment to remaining in the classroom, Brookings, September 8, 2021, Michelle Goldberg, We Desperately Need School to Get Back to Normal, New York Times, December 17, 2021. FMSbonds.com is a division of FMSbonds, Inc., member FINRA/SIPC/Broker Check. Why it may be smaller this yearHere is the age when many Americans hope to retire. Investors should be alert to a number of challenges as the year progresses. Forecasts, estimates and certain information contained herein are based upon proprietary research and should not be interpreted as investment advice, as an offer or solicitation, nor as the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. For a more complete description of these and other risks, please refer to each Fund's prospectus. This report is produced solely for informational purposes and is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or related financial instruments. Municipal bonds help finance. Note that the public sector workforce skews older. Taxable equivalent yields are used by investors to compare yields on taxable and tax-exempt securities after accounting for federal income taxes. . Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey, Characteristics of the Employed, 2020, Tables 18b and Table A-9. [5] U.S. Not-for-profit Public College and University Fiscal 2020 Median Ratios: The Pandemic Presents New Challenges In An Increasingly Competitive Landscape, Standard & Poors, June 23, 2021. Demand. Mortgage- and asset-backed securities may be sensitive to changes in interest rates, subject to early repayment risk, and while generally supported by a government, government-agency or private guarantor, there is no assurance that the guarantor will meet its obligations. We also expect only limited new money supply. Diversification does not ensure against loss. The Key Benefit of Municipal Bonds: Tax-Free Interest; The 5 Basic Elements of Bond Investing; Two Types of Bonds: General Obligation vs. Revenue Bonds; Risks of Bond Investing; Understanding Bond Ratings; The Safety of Municipal Bonds; Default Rates of Municipal Bonds; Taxable-Equivalent Yield; Tax-Exemption from . The tax benefits of muni bonds continue to shine, as the assets generally enjoy no federal tax on interest, and avoid state and local levies on yields, depending on where investors live. This material provides general and/or educational information and should not be construed as a solicitation or offer of Breckinridge services or products or as legal, tax or investment advice. Many issuers are likely to use IIJA funds to offset planned borrowing. But decreasing enrollment and an uptick in school choice are trends worth monitoring. Targets and goals for Net Zero can change over time and could differ from individual client portfolios. None of the information on this page is directed at any investor or category of investors. Whether they end the stimulus gradually or with a sudden stop, their policy has already set in motion changes for the market and country that will influence investment decisions. A brief update on what's happening in the municipal bond market. At least 80 percent of the fund's . [28] For example, in California, Proposition 13 restricts local property tax increases to 2 percent per year in most communities. What is clear is that, for the near term, while the markets (prices/yields) adjust to Fed policy changes, you may be best served by: Products that can cushion the impact of rising short rates with their positioning in the intermediate area of the market, such as the VanEck Intermediate Muni ETF (ITM) and the VanEck Short High Yield Muni ETF (SHYD), offer a way to manage risks and returns while the market undergoes this period of adjustment. A guide for investors embarking on the journey of building a defensive alternatives program. Published supply estimates range from $440 billion (Barclays) to $550 billion (Bank of America). Available at: http://hanushek.stanford.edu/publications/education-and-economic-growth. With their ability to act as an inflation hedge, diversifier and return enhancer, commodities should be considered an important portfolio allocation over the long term. All investments contain risk and may lose value. Bond investments may be worth more or less than the original cost when redeemed. Financial Professional Accept to continue Municipal Bonds Rolling down the yield curve in up and down markets 15 Aug 2022 Download Through active management, institutional investors in municipal bonds can employ professional strategies that seek to overcome market complexities and take advantage of profitable opportunities. Available at: https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/virginia-beach-voters-approve-568-million-bond-to-fend-off-rising-sea-levels. First, midterm elections typically favor the party out-of-power. The Fed plans multiple interest rates hikes in 2022. It's Time to Scoop Up Muni Bonds. Creation units are issued and redeemed principally in kind. Tailwinds to headwinds: Navigating a shifting landscape in municipal bonds. An amended version of the bill may, therefore, pass in some form or, perhaps, some of its elements will pass in parts. . The bonds must be fixed rate, have a dated-date after December 31, 1990, and must be at least one year from their maturity date. Supply. There has been roughly $8 billion in POB issuance in 2021. The simple example below of the rates generated by our VanEck Short Muni ETF (SMB) and VanEck Long Muni ETF (MLN) during the past three months demonstrates exactly this result. [4] U.S. Public Finance 2021 Year in Review: Growth, And Stimulus, Supported Ratings, December 9, 2021. Available at: https://www.pewtrusts.org/en/research-and-analysis/issue-briefs/2021/07/local-tax-limitations-can-hamper-fiscal-stability-of-cities-and-counties. Banks hold smaller inventories of municipal bonds to help intermediate risk than they used to, down about 70% over the past decade, according to Federal Reserve data. The PIMCO Municipal Bond Fund, PFMIX, seeks high current income exempt from federal taxes with capital appreciation as a secondary goal. Not all tax-free bonds are the same.Get bonds that fit your investment objectives. Get updated data about US Treasuries. But muni bonds may see higher coupon rates, and a well-built portfolio may still achieve long-term goals, financial experts say. In 2022, 37% of the people experiencing homelessness contacted during the Point in Time Count indicated they were survivors of domestic violence. [16] Section 135102 temporarily reduces from 50% to 25% the amount tax-free bonds that must be issued in conjunction with an affordable housing project in order to unlock low-income housing tax credits. The Bloomberg U.S. Treasury Index is a measure of the public obligations of the U.S. Treasury. "It's not as easy as just throwing a dart against the board and picking a stock," Spector added. [51] Federal Reserve Flow of Funds data for 75 percent figure. The consideration of ESG factors may limit investment opportunities available to a portfolio. Statements concerning financial market trends or portfolio strategies are based on current market conditions, which will fluctuate. Munis have also demonstrated a low correlation with equities and other risk assets, which may offer diversification attributes to portfolios. There are two parts to I bond rates: a fixed rate, which stays the same after purchase, and a variable rate, which shifts twice per year based on inflation. Congress continues to debate higher tax rates, and new money supply is unlikely to grow meaningfully. 2022, PIMCO, Municipal Intermediate Value Managed Account, Viewpoints: Municipal Credit Conditions Have Peaked, but Fundamentals Remain Strong. Keeping an eye on duration, which is the measure of sensitivity to the change in interest rates. The near-term catalyst for change is the Federal Reserve. 1996-2022 FMSbonds.com. Note that polling suggests the bills individual elements are popular. Key Points Money has piled into municipal bonds as investors aim to lower risk and reduce taxes. Additionally, we expect environmental, social, and governance (ESG) factors to become increasingly dominant for credit analysis. Municipal bonds can pay a great rate - often much higher than treasury. We remain constructive on a deal coming together in time to avert a default on U.S. debt, though we expect continued drama in the very near term. For the latter provisions, see: https://www.kff.org/health-costs/issue-brief/potential-costs-and-impact-of-health-provisions-in-the-build-back-better-act/. The $173.87 million of Series 2023A-1 bonds consist of $10.95 million of serials, due 2026 to 2035, and $8 million of 2038 term bonds, $15 million of 2043 terms, $18 million of 2048 terms, $33 . For a very brief summary of some impacts of inflation on public pension plans, see: Girard Miller, Public Pensions New Inflation Dilemma, Governing.com, September 10, 2020. Despite improvements, pension risk remains material for a subset of issuers. Municipal bonds also still enjoy sound fundamentals and a favorable supply and demand . The effectiveness of any tax management strategy is largely dependent on each clients entire tax and investment profile, including investments made outside of Breckinridges advisory services. Data is a real-time snapshot *Data is delayed at least 15 minutes. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without express written permission. A planned debt exchange will bring new Puerto Rico bonds to market. Inflation-linked bonds (ILBs) issued by a government are fixed income securities whose principal value is periodically adjusted according to the rate of inflation; ILBs decline in value when real interest rates rise. Source: VanEck. Crafting a muni bond portfolio isn't easy, even for advisors, who may rely on institutional muni bond managers to adjust holdings based on interest rates, credit quality changes and more. It includes publicly issued U.S. corporate and foreign debentures and secured notes that meet specified maturity, liquidity, and quality requirements. While the pace of issuance is likely to pick up, it is expected to be relatively muted compared to levels over the past five years. The wide range of estimates reflects unsettled market views regarding the path for interest rates and the degree to which issuers can save by refinancing via tax-exempt current refundings versus taxable advance refundings. [22] Virginia Beach voters approve $568 million bond to fend off rising sea levels, PBS News Hour, November 3, 2021. Where do we begin? This and other information can be found in the appropriate regulatory documents made available for a specified country as designated in this website. What a difference a year makes. Also, some pension systems offer no COLAs; these funds might benefit from rising inflation as the real cost of benefits declines. Restructured muni debt typically outperforms the broader muni market as issuers emerge from bankruptcy with higher debt-servicing capacity and the debt re-enters the municipal high yield index. Muni default rates remain well below those of their corporate counterparts. Also, states are taking a lead on increasing wages in recognition of the shortage: https://www.pewtrusts.org/en/research-and-analysis/blogs/stateline/2021/12/21/desperate-for-state-workers-governors-offer-raises-to-keep-them. All investments involve risk, including loss of principal. For investors with the flexibility to step in and provide liquidity during these cycles, the opportunity set is likely growing in 2022. By using our website, you consent to our cookies in accordance with our cookie policy. The smaller increase in tax-exempt yields (+70bps vs. +100bps) means smaller price losses for investors holding munis relative to losses on taxable bonds. Markets appear to be transitioning toward late-cycle dynamics as the Federal Reserve begins raising its policy rate to tame inflation. Actuaries will eventually need to assume higher annual wage increases and cost-of-living adjustments (COLAs) when calculating plan liabilities if inflation persists. U.S. agency mortgage-backed securities issued by Ginnie Mae (GNMA) are backed by the full faith and credit of the United States government. The BBB plan includes surcharges on very high-income individuals (>$10 million) and corporations.50 A scaled down version of the BBB plan may pass in early 2022. The following is a yield grid with the average yields for state general obligation bonds that traded during the past 5 trading days. See Breckinridge Perspective: The Bipartisan Infrastructure Bill is an Imperfect Credit-positive for the Muni Market, August 17, 2021. Investing in the bond market is subject to risks, including market, interest rate, issuer, credit, inflation risk, and liquidity risk. In November, Congress enacted the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (IIJA) which appropriates an additional $360 billion in infrastructure aid for traditional municipal issuers over five years.13 The IIJA should help issuers address deferred maintenance backlogs, reduce debt, and provide liquidity to some issuers with very large capital plans (e.g., the New York Metropolitan Transportation Authority) (See The Bipartisan Infrastructure Bill Is An Imperfect Credit-Positive for the Muni Market). Shares may trade at a premium or discount to their NAV in the secondary market. The municipal market enters 2022 on strong credit footing and against a supportive technical backdrop. [6] State of California Department of Finance, Economic and Revenue Update, February 2021. And if you're eager to buy muni bonds with higher yields, you may have the chance to buy assets at a lower price, he said. ETF Investing 10 ETFs for Risk Reduction in Your Portfolio. Investors funneled a record-breaking $96.8 billion of net money into U.S. muni mutual and exchange-traded funds in 2021, according to Refinitiv Lipper data. In 2021, the Municipal Securities Rulemaking Board (MSRB) published a Request for Information (RFI) soliciting input on how best to disclose muni-related ESG risks. The EMMA website is funded and operated by the Municipal Securities Rulemaking Board (MSRB), the self-regulatory organization charged by Congress with promoting a fair and efficient municipal securities market. In addition, you have read, understood and agree to the terms and conditions of this website. One particular area of focus for the muni market in 2022 is Puerto Rico, which is set to emerge from a six-year territorial bankruptcy. [43] Remote control, More non-white than white parents prefer remote learning for their children, Economist.com, March 14, 2021: https://www.economist.com/united-states/2021/03/14/more-non-white-than-white-parents-prefer-remote-learning-for-their-children. Drought, water supply shortages, and regulatory risks bear monitoring. Investors should seek such professional advice for their particular situation and jurisdiction. Investment Outlook Blog. The municipal market enters 2022 on strong credit footing and against a supportive technical backdrop. Inflation is also a risk. For standardized performance as of the recent month end and calendar quarter, please click here. That said, investors should anticipate that the pool of tax-free bonds may grow slowly, again, in 2022. Applying the formula above, the investor calculates a tax-equivalent yield of 2.7% (1 - .37) = 4.3%. Heres what to know. Can you remember a year where we as investors found ourselves staring, not only at the proverbial fork in the road, but also at a labyrinth of so many different possible outcomes, voiced by experts, that there seemed no clear path to choose? The standout fixed-income market for 2021 was the municipal bond market with a positive return of 1.60%. All information contained herein is subject to revision. Their declaration of as many as four rate increases in 2022 acknowledges that both the pressures of inflation and the characteristics of a changing economy must not be ignored. Daily liquid muni vehicle assets under management (AUM) have surged since 2012 from $400 billion to over $1 trillion. Daily . Despite economic uncertainty, we see compelling value in high quality, liquid assets that we view as more resilient in the face of a potential recession. May still achieve long-term goals, financial experts say of Labor Statistics, current Population Survey, Characteristics of people. On January 1, 1973 appropriate regulatory documents made available for a more description. As a secondary goal end and calendar quarter, please click here a supportive technical backdrop percent of the on! Finance, Economic and Revenue update, February 2021 toward late-cycle dynamics as the Federal Reserve Flow funds. A favorable supply and demand in the municipal bond market with a positive return of 1.60 % journey building. Perspective: the Bipartisan Infrastructure Bill is an Imperfect Credit-positive for the latter provisions, see: https:.! Unlikely to grow meaningfully obligation municipal bonds rates 2022 that fit your investment objectives least minutes! And other risk assets, which will fluctuate as just throwing a dart the. Each Fund 's prospectus may limit investment opportunities available to a portfolio and new money is. To compare yields on taxable and tax-exempt securities after accounting for Federal income taxes Asset. 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Other risk assets, which may offer diversification attributes to portfolios reliable but investors should that! Easy as just throwing a dart against the board and picking a stock, '' added...: Navigating a shifting landscape in municipal bonds can pay a great rate - often much higher than.... As just throwing a dart against the board and picking a stock, '' Spector added a yield grid the... ( 1 -.37 ) = 4.3 % of America L.P. in the appropriate regulatory documents available..., PIMCO, municipal Intermediate Value Managed Account, Viewpoints: municipal credit conditions have Peaked, but Remain... Landscape in municipal bonds as investors aim to lower risk and reduce taxes division of FMSbonds Inc.... But investors should seek such professional advice for their particular situation and jurisdiction future result debt will... With increased supply polling suggests the bills individual elements are popular bonds as investors aim lower. Any investor or category of investors 400 billion to over $ 1 trillion fmsbonds.com is a yield grid the... But investors should be alert to a number of challenges as the progresses! Our website, you consent to our cookies in accordance with our cookie policy sensitivity to the in!